After last night's story, the change in direction at the end of this graph tells it all.
The first reduction in temperature loss must have been caused by coming home and turning on various lights; that's an interesting and useful (in winter) side of effect of not killing myself by tripping over a cat in the dark.
Update: it occurs to me when I came home I shutdown the furnace and its ventilation fan, which pulls fresh cold air into the basement. That may have been the real solution for the dropping thermometer.
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